Probability analysis

Why conduct a probability analysis?

In a Campaign effectiveness measurement, conscious recognition of and unconscious exposure to your campaign are examined. This measures the effect of a campaign based on campaign recognition, i.e., whether brand awareness is higher among those who have seen the campaign than among those who have not. In addition, a hit rate analysis based on a respondent's viewing and listening behavior can be used to determine the number of unconscious contact moments with the campaign. These results can be used to establish links between the contact frequency and mix of channels and the effect on your KPIs.

The contact frequency is determined based on two elements. The first element is the media behavior of the target group. This is determined by means of an online questionnaire. Respondents are asked about the times they watch specific television channels or listen to specific radio stations. The specific channels include the channels on which the campaign is broadcast.

This viewing and listening behavior is then compared with the campaign's broadcast schedule, including the times and channels on which the campaign was broadcast (the GRP schedule). Based on this, it is possible to determine how many (unconscious) contact moments each respondent had with the campaign and to determine the campaign's hit rate.

The results

Based on the results, different groups are created, with a low, medium, or high hit rate, which can be used as a cross-reference for the KPIs. This makes it possible to see whether the high hit rate has a more desirable effect on the KPIs than a low hit rate. In addition, a hit probability analysis can be used to determine whether there is a certain number of contacts above which the KPIs no longer increase, or at which the campaign even causes irritation. This helps to adjust the campaign in the future, as you now know what the maximum number of communications should be. 

What's more, you can use the results of the hit rate analysis to instruct your media agency to purchase the right GRPs for a campaign. After all, if it turns out that NPO1 does work well but SBS6 does not, this can be taken into account in subsequent campaign flights.

The overlap analysis

To give the hit rate analysis extra depth, we can also perform an overlap analysis. This analysis looks not only at the number of contacts, but also at the different channels (such as television, radio, social media, or online banners) through which people came into contact with the campaign. Based on the contact frequency per channel, respondents who came into contact with the campaign through different channels can be compared with each other. One outcome of this could be that online media use on its own does not increase brand awareness, but in combination with television and radio it does. This allows the ideal media mix to be determined.